Experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) recommend an extension of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) over Metro Manila, Batangas, Cebu, Zamboanga del Sur, and Davao City beyond May 15.
(What, When, Where: Everything you need to know about the General Community Quarantine)
A study conducted by researchers Guido David, Ranjit Singh Rye, and Ma. Patricia Agbulos concludes that ECQ should continue until the government has “scaled up and rolled out its programs and its initiatives for mass testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infective individuals.” This is so the relevant areas are able to maintain the progress they’ve had in flattening the curve.
They also cited Albay, Bataan, Iloilo, Laguna, and Pampanga as possible areas to be considered for ECQ extension, pending health provisions these areas.
“With a continued ECQ, the number of COVID-19 cases in NCR should be around 12,000 by June 15 with 800 deaths. Without any changes in the trend, the projection is 14,000 cases by June 15 with 1,000 deaths. A premature relaxation of the ECQ in NCR may result in an escalation of 24,000 cases and 1,700 deaths by June 15,” the team warns.
The researchers also considered the economic aspect of lifting the ECQ, saying that a premature relaxation of restrictions could force the country to make costly interventions in the long run.
“We wish to emphasize that we are faced with a choice not between the economy and public health (lives vs livelihood), but between a less or more costly disruption to the lives of ordinary Filipinos,” they explained.
The UP team stressed that the “weakest link” in the Philippines COVID-19 response has been ineffective contact tracing. They recommend increased training and hiring of contact tracers as well as the use of digital contract tracing applications.
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