UP Experts Predict 130,000 COVID-19 Cases by August

Experts from the University of the Philippines project at least 130,000 COVID-19 cases across the Philippines by end of August if current trends continue.

The team behind the study share their predictions not to cause fear, but to remind everyone to do their part in warning against the spread of the virus.

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Dr. Darwin Bandoy of the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team explained that all of their mathematical models and projections are meant to aid the government in preparing the necessary response.

“We use these models to estimate the hospital capacity, project the peak and duration [of the infection] as a way to prepare as well as create behavioral change,” said Bandoy. “That if interaction, contact is reduced, we may be able to change and improve our situation.”

“We shouldn’t fear these models. These can serve as a guide for us to change our behavior and improve our response,” he added.

The team of experts earlier predicted the Philippines’ COVID-19 cases to reach anywhere from 51,095 to 67,795 by the end of July. The total number of cases surpassed that prediction last July 20 when the national tally went up to 68,898 cases.

UP’s upper limit projection by the end of July is 84,515. By end-August, the number of cases may range between 99,523 to 130,677.

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